India is poised to increase its imports of Russian oil in September, defying U.S. tariffs designed to curb the trade, sources said. The move underscores New Delhi’s continued reliance on discounted Russian crude amid global tensions over the Ukraine conflict.
Indian refiners are expected to boost purchases by 10–20% compared with August levels, translating to an additional 150,000–300,000 barrels per day, according to preliminary data cited by industry traders. Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, India’s largest buyers of Russian crude, have yet to comment on the anticipated increase.
Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India has emerged as the biggest buyer of Russian oil displaced by Western sanctions, enabling domestic refiners to access cheaper crude. While U.S. officials have criticized India for profiting from discounted oil, Indian authorities have accused the West of double standards, pointing out that Europe and the U.S. continue to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of Russian goods.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration escalated tensions by increasing U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 50%. However, analysts suggest that these measures are unlikely to significantly alter India’s Russian import volumes. BNP Paribas noted that given India’s rising refinery runs and discounted Russian barrels, the country is unlikely to curb purchases in meaningful quantities.
Russia, facing refinery outages from both planned maintenance and Ukrainian attacks, has limited capacity to process crude into fuels. The resulting supply constraints have been offset by India’s growing demand. In the first 20 days of August, India imported 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude, covering roughly 40% of the country’s oil needs.
Traders report that Russian Urals crude loading in September will be sold at $2–$3 per barrel below Brent benchmarks—cheaper than August’s discounts—making the imports even more economically attractive for Indian refiners.
Experts warn that unless India issues a policy change or global sanctions intensify, Russian crude will remain a central part of India’s energy supply. CLSA noted that halting imports could reduce global supply by about one million barrels per day and push oil prices toward $100 per barrel in the short term.
Meanwhile, the European Union has tightened its price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel, complicating sales for the remainder of the year. Despite these challenges, India appears set to continue its strategic purchases, maintaining its position as the top buyer of seaborne Russian crude in the global market.